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Balance of payment risks remain substantial.

A somewhat more bearish outcome for pound would likely come from a more protracted and pronounced period of UK and global economic weakness, especially if it occurs with inflation still well above target. A “stagflation” scenario – in which growth stays weak, and inflation remains uncomfortably high – could accentuate the country’s yawning current account deficit (~3.7 percent of gross domestic product). A further deterioration in an already-precarious balance of payments position could see the pound adjust lower to attract the capital needed to fund the external imbalance.

GBPUSD versus UK terms of trade

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