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AUD

18 Jun 2024

RBA: No retreat, No surrender

No shock and awe from the RBA today, but its underlying tone did lean a little more ‘hawkish’. The cash rate was held steady at 4.35%, where it has been since last November, with the Board also reiterating it needs to “remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation” and that it “is not ruling anything in or out” when it comes to future moves. This is now a somewhat familiar mantra, and although the hurdle for another hike looks high the chances aren’t zero with the start of the RBA’s easing cycle appearing some time away. Getting consumer prices down...

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17 Jun 2024

Will the RBA hold the line?

• Positive vibes. Concerns about the upcoming French election settled down. Equities rose, as did bond yields, with EUR also a little higher.• RBA today. No change from the RBA anticipated. It is likely to reiterate that it isn’t ruling anything in or out. The first RBA cut isn’t priced until mid-2025.• Global data. Yesterday’s China data batch was mixed. Tonight, US retail sales are released. A modest rebound is US consumer spending is predicted. A bit more of a positive tone in markets at the start of the new week. Concerns in Europe about the upcoming French parliamentary elections...

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17 Jun 2024

European Political Uncertainty Weakens Risk Appetite

Currency markets are struggling to gain traction as political turmoil weighs on the euro, sustaining safe haven flows into the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. Broader conditions look mixed, with North American equity futures little changed, bond yields ticking upward, crude prices nudging higher, and raw industrial commodity benchmarks slipping.  Ten-year French government bonds are still yielding roughly 80 basis points more than their German counterparts as uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the country’s two-round legislative election, which is set to conclude on July 7. Both Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the left-wing Popular Front parties have made substantial advances...

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16 Jun 2024

European political jitters

• European concerns. French political risks weighing on European assets. EUR near a ~1-month low. This, and a softer JPY, has supported the USD.• AUD cross-currents. Backdrop has seen AUD drift back. But it isn’t all one-way. AUD/EUR near the upper end of its 2024 range.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues). Offshore, in addition to French politics, markets focused on the China data, US retail sales, Fed speakers, BoE meeting, & PMIs. Nerves about the potential outcome of the upcoming French parliamentary elections (30 June & 7 July) continued to dampen sentiment in Europe at the end of last week....

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13 Jun 2024

European political nerves

• European politics. Concerns about the French elections has exerted pressure on the EUR. This helped push AUD/EUR higher.• US data. US PPI undershot forecasts. Inflation tide may be turning. US yields fell, but European issues supported the USD. AUD/USD drifted back.• AU jobs. May jobs report better than expected. At 4% unemployment is still low. Conditions for an RBA interest rate cut still look some time away. US economic and European political crosscurrents have pushed and pulled markets overnight. Data wise, following on from the lower than expected US CPI report US Producer Prices also undershot forecasts. Importantly, the...

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