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AUD

22 Jul 2024

AUD losing altitude

• US politics. No major market reaction to news Pres. Biden has withdrawn from the election. US equities bounce, while yields & the USD consolidate.• AUD turbulence. AUD lost more ground. Monetary easing in China & weaker industrial metals prices have exerted downward pressure on the AUD.• Data flow. No major releases today. Tomorrow global PMIs are due & BoC is expected to cut rates. US GDP (Thurs) & PCE deflator (Fri) also looming. News US President Biden has withdrawn from the election race clearly generated a lot of media attention, but the impact on financial markets has been minimal....

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21 Jul 2024

Biden drops out

• US politics. Pres. Biden drops out of the race. Will the narrower gap between Harris & Trump in betting odds see traders unwind recent market moves?• AUD vol. AUD under pressure last week. But we think it is looking a bit undervalued given the relative macro & interest rate dynamics.• Event radar. Global PMIs due (Weds). US GDP (Thurs) & PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Bank of Canada meets (Weds), so does the MAS (Fri). The pressure on cyclical assets continued at the end of last week with the pull-back in equities and industrial commodities extending. The US S&P500...

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18 Jul 2024

Political noise

• Shaky sentiment. US equities dip for the second day. Base metals lower. USD a little firmer. AUD/USD slips back but AUD holding up on the crosses.• Global macro. ECB holds steady. September meeting is ‘wide open’. Incoming data will be key. UK wages cool. EUR & GBP lose a bit of ground.• AU jobs. Solid jobs report. Labour demand remains positive. Unemployment still low. RBA expectations diverging from other central banks. A few wobbles in risk sentiment over the past couple of sessions. US equities fell for the second straight day (S&P500 -0.8%), base metal prices declined (copper -3.3%),...

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16 Jul 2024

Mixed messages

• Mixed markets. S&P500 & gold hit record highs. Bond yields slipped back, while the USD index consolidated. AUD gave back a bit of ground.• US data. US retail sales better than expected in June. But the underlying trend still shows sluggish momentum. Fed rate cuts priced in from September.• NZ CPI. NZ headline inflation slowed in Q2. The door to RBNZ rate cuts continues to open. Australian jobs report released tomorrow. Mixed performance across markets overnight. US equities continued to power ahead with the S&P500 (+0.6%) hitting another record. The S&P500 is now up ~24% compared to a year...

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15 Jul 2024

Macro vs politics

• Trump trades. US long end yields, equities, & the USD tick up. Weekend developments have bolstered expectations Trump might be re-elected.• Fed pricing. US data is supporting Fed rate cut bets. Last week US CPI underwhelmed. The divergence with the RBA is underpinning the AUD.• Event Radar. US retail sales due tonight. ECB meets on Thursday night. Q2 NZ CPI (Weds) & the Australian jobs report (Thurs) also on the schedule. Economic trends butted up against geopolitical developments at the start of the new week. These cross-currents look set to be in place for some time. After losing more...

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