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AUD

07 Oct 2024

USD revival

• Stronger USD. A positive US jobs report has seen US rate expectations reprice higher, supporting the USD. AUD has fallen to mid-September levels.• China reopening. Financial markets in mainland China reopen today after a holiday. This will be in focus, as will a briefing by its economic planners.• Local events. Consumer confidence, business conditions, RBA meeting minutes, & speech by RBA Dep. Governor Hauser also on the radar. Last Friday’s stronger than anticipated monthly US jobs report generated a market jolt. The robust job creation (non-farm payrolls rose 254,000 in August), positive revisions to history, dip in the unemployment...

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03 Oct 2024

AUD/NZD: RBNZ needs to get moving

The NZD’s revival against the AUD, which washed through from end-July to mid-September on the back of stronger dairy prices (NZ’s major export) at the start of the new season and concerns about China’s property sector, looks to have run its course (chart 1). Fundamentals are swinging back in favour of the AUD, and in line with our long-held view, we think these underlying trends could persist over the medium-term. Externally, policymakers in China have been stepping up to the plate recently to bolster ‘animal spirits’ across spending and investment and boost growth. Various monetary and housing support measures have...

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03 Oct 2024

Middle East nerves

• Oil spike. Comments by US President Biden relating to the Middle East conflict pushed up oil. Shaky risk sentiment supported the USD. AUD a bit lower.• GBP weaker. Dovish BoE rhetoric weighed on GBP. AUD/GBP near levels last traded in mid-July. AUD/NZD higher ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.• US jobs. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Signs conditions are cooling may see the USD reverse course, but a lot will depend on geopolitics. Cautious trade across risk assets continued overnight. Nervousness about the situation in the Middle East remains with oil prices spiking ~5% higher on fears facilities in...

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01 Oct 2024

Middle East tensions rock the boat

• Geopolitics. Developments in the Middle East dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD a little firmer. AUD modestly lower.• Oil & vol. Brent crude prices increased, but now look to be tracking inline with fundamentals. Measures of volatility also not showing much stress.• NZD weaker. NZD fell, AUD/NZD rose. NZIER Survey showed price pressures are cooling fast raising the odds the RBNZ cuts rates by 50bps. Geopolitics trumped economics overnight with escalating tensions in the Middle East generating a bout of risk aversion. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel, a few hours after the US had...

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30 Sep 2024

US Fed remains data dependent

• China focus. The surge in China’s equity market continued yesterday. Iron ore prices also higher. This helped the AUD add to recent gains.• Fed Chair. US yields & the USD clawed back some ground in overnight trade after Chair Powell tempered expectations about outsized rate cuts.• Data driven. US Fed is data driven. Interest rate expectations & USD will be sensitive to whether US data is stronger or weaker than predicted. Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week. On the one hand the upswing in China’s equity market on the back of the stimulus push...

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