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AUD

30 Sep 2024

US Fed remains data dependent

• China focus. The surge in China’s equity market continued yesterday. Iron ore prices also higher. This helped the AUD add to recent gains.• Fed Chair. US yields & the USD clawed back some ground in overnight trade after Chair Powell tempered expectations about outsized rate cuts.• Data driven. US Fed is data driven. Interest rate expectations & USD will be sensitive to whether US data is stronger or weaker than predicted. Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week. On the one hand the upswing in China’s equity market on the back of the stimulus push...

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29 Sep 2024

Will the US jobs market continue to buckle?

• Mixed markets. Equities in China continue to power ahead, while lower inflation weighed on European/US bond yields. USD near 2024 lows.• AUD holding. AUD remains near the top of the range it has occupied since early-2023. Diverging policy expectations & China stimulus are supportive.• Event radar. China PMIs released today. EZ CPI is out (Tues), while in the US non-farm payrolls rounds out the week. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks. Mixed fortunes across markets at the end of last week with geopolitical and economic forces push and pulling on different asset classes. China’s equity market continued to power...

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25 Sep 2024

Two steps forward, one step back

• Shaky sentiment. After a strong run equities slipped overnight. Bond yields rose & the USD clawed back ground. AUD & NZD dipped.• AU CPI. Monthly headline CPI indicator decelerated as government measures washed through. But progress on core/services inflation is more gradual.• Event radar. Several US Fed members speak tonight. US jobless claims & durable goods released. Locally, RBA’s FSR & job vacancies are due. After a strong run the positive risk sentiment that has washed through markets reversed course slightly over the past 24hrs. There has been little top-tier economic data released globally, and although geopolitical tensions in...

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23 Sep 2024

Will the RBA hold the line?

• Upbeat tone. Last weeks larger than expected rate cut by the US Fed continues to wash through markets. US PCE deflator in focus this week.• Global PMIs. Softer Eurozone PMIs weighed a bit on the EUR. US PMIs holding up. Cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD remain firm.• RBA today. In contrast to its peers the RBA is expected to keep rates on hold today. Divergence between the RBA & others is underpinning the AUD. The implications of last week’s bigger than expected 50bp rate cut by the US Federal Reserve continues to be digested by markets. The...

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09 Sep 2024

USD bouncing back

• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range. USD has recovered some ground, while the NZD & AUD have lost altitude.• Event radar. US Pres. debate (Weds), US CPI (Weds), & ECB meeting (Thurs) in focus this week. Will the USD’s revival continue? Markets have enjoyed a relatively more positive start to the week as the dust settled following Friday nights US jobs report and comments by Fed officials which generated further turbulence. From...

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