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Market Brief, North America

02 Jun 2025

Trade War Flare-Up Destabilises Dollar

The dollar is back on the defensive as June begins, retreating amid a worsening in trade tensions between the United States and its global counterparts. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced he would double steel tariffs to 50 percent, again raising taxes on American consumers while prompting fears of a new round of countermeasures from Canada and the European Union. China yesterday accused the US of “seriously violating” the trade ceasefire agreed in Geneva last month, noting that Washington has imposed a series of “discriminatory restrictive measures,” including restrictions on chip design software, warnings against the purchase of Huawei products,...

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30 May 2025

Sentiment Remains Weak As Tariff Fears Outweigh Still-Supportive Fundamentals

Measures of risk appetite remain soft in currency markets amid mounting concern that Donald Trump’s tariffs may prove more enduring than had been hoped. A federal appeals court yesterday granted the administration a temporary reprieve from a ruling that could have unraveled much of its trade policy, broader confidence was dented by a Wall Street Journal report suggesting the White House is weighing a stopgap strategy to keep tariffs in place, and the President later posted a social media broadside against a legal system that has frustrated his ambitions in the last week. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar remains...

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29 May 2025

Tariff Celebration Proves Short-Lived

Financial markets this morning celebrated a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s trade war after the bipartisan US Court of International Trade ruled that he overstepped his authority in using emergency powers to impose tariffs – but the relief rally is fading in the face of data that suggests the economy is losing momentum. North American equity indices are still marching toward solid gains – partially supported by last night’s positive earnings release from artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia Corp. – and implied volatility expectations are declining, but ten-year Treasury yields are falling, and the dollar is conceding territory as the session...

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28 May 2025

Rally Fades As Uncertainties Remain

Traders are trimming risk after yesterday’s relief rally took market valuations a little too far. A rebound across Treasuries, equity indices, and the US dollar – initially driven by the Trump administration’s rapid retreat from tariff threats against the European Union and hints of a possible shift in Japan’s bond issuance strategy – is retracing against a still-uncertain policy backdrop. In currency markets, the greenback’s gains are fading, while the Canadian dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen are giving back some of their losses. Long-dated government bond yields are inching higher in most developed economies after another bout of...

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27 May 2025

Tumult Fades As Intense Trading Week Begins

Measures of risk appetite are improving this morning amid signs of an easing in last week’s bond market tantrum, and following a brief escalation in cross-Atlantic trade tensions. Equity markets are setting up for a near-1-percent advance at the open, Treasury yields are inching lower across the long end of the curve, and the dollar is strengthening as investors brace for a heavy slate of data releases in the coming days. Bonds are rallying across the advanced economies on hints that Japanese authorities could take action to stem upward pressure on long-term yields. According to several media reports, the Ministry...

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