Market Brief, North America

Headline consumer price growth jumped by the most since June 2022 in the United States last month while measures of underlying pressure remained tame, underscoring the challenge facing the Federal Reserve as it struggles to balance labour market vulnerabilities against war- and tariff-related inflation risks. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the all-items consumer price index rose 0.9 percent in March from the prior month, and 3.3 percent over the same period last year. This matched consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, with a 20.2-percent jump...

Markets are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as doubts mount over Tuesday’s US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Israel pressing its assault on targets in Lebanon, Tehran showing no sign of easing its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, and all sides remaining far apart on basic terms. Both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate global crude oil benchmarks are knocking on the $100 threshold once again, front-end Treasury yields are pushing higher, equity futures are pointing to losses, and the dollar is back to outperforming its higher-beta and carry-driven counterparts. There’s little evidence to suggest that the agreement is translating...

Good morning. Oil prices jumped and currency markets slid back into risk-aversion mode last night when Donald Trump claimed the US-Israeli war against Iran was “nearing completion” but failed to offer a clear timeline and threatened more attacks. In a 19-minute address from the White House, the president said “We are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly,” yet “We are going to hit them extremely hard. Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong”. Both global crude oil benchmarks are up more...