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Market Brief, North America

Markets reverse lower ahead of key payrolls report

Markets are turning defensive ahead of the weekend as the war in the Middle East shows little sign of progress and investors grow more cautious on artificial-intelligence stocks. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude look set to post their first weekly gains in three weeks after Hezbollah rejected a new ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel said it would maintain its troop presence in the country, undermining President Trump’s efforts to negotiate a face-saving exit from the conflict with Tehran. Equity futures are pointing to losses at the open after Broadcom, the semiconductor developer, beat quarterly earnings expectations but forecast disappointing...

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Another Iran escalation whipsaws markets

Good morning, and happy Groundhog Day*. The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are rising as diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz falter once again. Iran and the United States said last week they had reached a tentative deal to halt the war, but nothing has been signed and events on the ground moved in the opposite direction overnight: Iranian missiles damaged Kuwait’s airport and targeted Bahrain, attacks on commercial shipping resumed, US forces carried out strikes in response, and Israel continued its assault on Lebanese towns despite an American-brokered ceasefire. Both global crude benchmarks are up more...

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Iran headlines dominate currency market price action

Treasury yields and the dollar are retreating from yesterday’s highs after Hezbollah and Israel agreed to temporarily halt cross-border fighting, giving Iranian officials cause to return to the bargaining table. Oil prices had posted their sharpest one-day surge in a month after Tehran said it was abandoning talks amid an intensifying Israeli assault on Lebanon, reviving supply fears that had been dormant for weeks. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate are down roughly 1.3% this morning, ten-year Treasury yields have eased back to 4.42%, and the trade-weighted dollar is edging lower as traders unwind the defensive positioning built up during...

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Iran cycle continues, keeping yields and the dollar aloft

Good morning. Equities look set to extend May’s advance at this morning’s open, even as the dollar and Treasury yields climb amid another round of escalatory strikes in the Middle East. Overnight, America hit radar and missile sites in Iran, and Tehran responded with attacks on Kuwait. President Trump said he was “in no hurry” to agree to a deal that might reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning “if we don’t get what we want, we are going to end it in a different way”. Both global oil benchmarks are up roughly 3% as inventories fall to dangerously-low levels, raising...

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Caution creeps back in as US-Iran truce remains unresolved

Happy Friday. Oil prices and the dollar are paring their losses this morning after dropping sharply yesterday on reports of a tentative agreement between the US and Iran. According to multiple sources, the two sides have agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, schedule a fresh round of negotiations on Iranian nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month. But Tehran has not confirmed the text, President Trump has not yet signed off, and after a series of false dawns investors are growing more cautious as the session progresses*. Although both global crude benchmarks are down...

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