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Market Musing, Asia Pacific

07 Nov 2024

Trump 2.0 & the AUD

The decisive victory by former President Trump in the 2024 US election and elevated odds the Republicans also sweep Congress has generated bursts of market volatility over the past few sessions. This might be a taste of things to come. The election result shouldn’t be viewed as a ‘shock’ as it was 8 years ago. The outcome was in line with the signal various opinion polls and probability gauges had been pointing to for several weeks. Nevertheless, as we had forewarned in our prior research, a Trump win (particularly if it was compounded by Republican victories in both chambers of...

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27 Oct 2024

US election: FX inflection point

The US Presidential Election is almost upon us with the vote held next week (5 November US time). While it has been tracked closely in the media for some time the same can’t be said for markets. Other macro and geopolitical developments such as the US/global interest rate cutting cycle, the situation in the Middle East, and macro goings on in China were front-of-mind for most of the past few months. But with the finish line nearing participants have finally been more seriously casting their eye over how the election could pan out and what it may mean for the...

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08 Oct 2024

AUD/NZD: RBNZ delivers

The RBNZ has followed through and crystalized the built-up market expectations by delivering a 50bp interest rate cut at today’s monetary policy review. The move, the second interest rate reduction this cycle, lowers the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. The OCR had reached a peak of 5.5% during the RBNZ hiking phase which had put policy settings well into ‘restrictive’ territory. The economic winds of change are blowing hard in NZ. According to the RBNZ inflation is back in the 1-3%pa target band, activity is subdued with business investment and consumption weak, employment conditions have continued to...

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03 Oct 2024

AUD/NZD: RBNZ needs to get moving

The NZD’s revival against the AUD, which washed through from end-July to mid-September on the back of stronger dairy prices (NZ’s major export) at the start of the new season and concerns about China’s property sector, looks to have run its course (chart 1). Fundamentals are swinging back in favour of the AUD, and in line with our long-held view, we think these underlying trends could persist over the medium-term. Externally, policymakers in China have been stepping up to the plate recently to bolster ‘animal spirits’ across spending and investment and boost growth. Various monetary and housing support measures have...

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04 Sep 2024

Australia GDP: growth vs levels

The dated Q2 Australian GDP confirmed what we should have already known. The growth pulse is subdued with higher interest rates and cost of living squeeze working to constrain consumer spending, construction, and broader business investment. The Australian economy expanded by just 0.2% in Q2, lowering the annual run-rate to a meagre 1%pa (chart 1). Outside of COVID this is the slowest annual pace since the early-1990’s recession with household consumption particularly weak despite the ongoing drawdown of COVID-era ‘excess savings’ (chart 2). Indeed, slicing and dicing the data further shows that growth across the private sector has stalled with...

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