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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

12 Nov 2023

US data in the spotlight

• Positive sentiment. US equities rose sharply on Friday, while oil & bond yields ticked up. USD consolidated. AUD stabilised after a torrid few days.• RBA projections. RBA revised up its growth outlook. It is also forecasting a slower return by inflation to target. Risk of another rate hike remains.• Event radar. Offshore, US CPI, US retail sales & the China activity data are released this week. Locally, Q3 wages & the monthly jobs report are due. In contrast to the softness during Friday’s Asian and European sessions, risk appetite was positive in US trade. US equities rose sharply with...

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08 Nov 2023

Oil slick

• Mixed markets. Equities ticked up with the S&P500 enjoying its 8th straight gain. USD index consolidated, but commodity currencies like the AUD slipped back.• Bonds & oil. The slide in long-end bond yields & oil continued. US 10yr yields are now ~50bps below the late-October peak. Oil is at a multi-month low.• AUD stumble. AUD has given back ~1/2 its recent rebound. Domestic wage & jobs data released next week could see AU rate expectations rebound. With not too much economic news most markets have consolidated over the past day. Equities have generally ticked up with the major European...

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06 Nov 2023

RBA: will they or won’t they?

• Consolidation. Bond yields recovered a bit of lost ground, though moves across FX were limited. The USD is a little firmer. AUD slipped back under $0.65.• Another RBA hike? RBA in focus today. Most analysts expect another 25bp hike. Markets are less sure with a ~65% chance of a move factored in.• AUD vol. A hike combined with an ongoing tightening bias should be AUD positive. But a no change decision could trigger a larger knee-jerk AUD fall. After last weeks outsized market moves, it isn’t surprising to see that there was some modest payback overnight. US equities were...

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05 Nov 2023

AUD revival continues

• US jobs. A softer US jobs report added to the downward pressure on US yields & the USD. Equities continue to bounce back. AUD at its highest since late-August.• RBA hike? Attention will be on tomorrow’s RBA decision. Most analysts are expecting a rate rise, but markets are less sure (~60% chance is priced in).• AUD vol. Market pricing points to AUD volatility post the RBA, with a ‘surprise’ no change likely to generate a larger knee-jerk AUD reaction, in our view. Markets were fixated on the latest US jobs report on Friday night. The weaker than predicted figures...

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02 Nov 2023

Jobs, jobs, jobs

• Yields fall. Long end yields continued to decline. This has boosted equities. The AUD has edged up to the top of its recent range.• Central banks. The BoE held rates steady. Outside of the RBA, expectations tightening cycles are nearing their end continue to build.• US jobs in focus. Soft data would reinforce the slide in yields & the USD. But this isn’t guaranteed. A positive surprise could see recent moves reverse. The pull-back in long-end bond yields continued overnight as expectations central bank tightening cycles (outside of the RBA) are nearing their end continue to build. The US...

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