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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

BoC cuts rates. ECB set to follow.

• Positive tone. Equities higher, while bond yields fell. BoC delivered its first rate cut this cycle. There were more signs the US labour market is cooling.• FX moves. Limited net moves in currencies. USD index a touch firmer, with a softer JPY the main driver. EUR & AUD treading water.• Data flow. ECB tonight. A rate cut is fully priced. Q1 AU GDP confirmed growth momentum is weak. But this is what is needed to tame inflation. It was a generally positive tone across markets overnight. European and US equities rose, with strong gains in technology stocks coming through....

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More signs of a US slowdown

• US ISM. A weaker US manufacturing ISM rattled nerves. The drop in US bond yields has weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• Labour market. US JOLTS due tonight. Non-farm payrolls out on Friday. Signs the US jobs market is cooling may exerted more pressure on the USD.• AU data. Q1 GDP due tomorrow. More inputs released today. Modest growth anticipated. But offshore forces/USD trends have more of an AUD impact. A surprisingly weak US ISM manufacturing survey, a leading indicator for cyclical momentum in the economy, rattled a few market nerves overnight. In contrast to expectations predicting...

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Central banks & US jobs in focus this week

• Positive tone. US bond yields lost ground as more US data underwhelmed. This gave US stocks a boost on Friday & exerted pressure on the USD.• AUD moves. AUD edged higher. Domestic & offshore data might generate some intermittent AUD swings this week.• Event radar. Locally, Q1 GDP is due (Weds). Offshore, the BoC (Weds) & ECB (Thurs) could cut rates, while the US jobs report (Fri) will be a focal point. There was a more upbeat tone across markets at the end of last week. US and European equities rose on Friday. The S&P500 outperformed (+0.8%), although this...

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US events in focus

• Shaky sentiment. US equities, yields & the USD a bit lower as Q1 US GDP was revised down. AUD rebounds up towards ~$0.6630 (its 1-month average)• US politics. Former President Trump found guilty. Market impact has (so far) been limited. More twists & turns in US politics look likely.• Data flow. China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, & US PCE deflator due today. Moderating US inflation & positive data elsewhere could weigh on the USD. There was a ‘risk off’ tone across most markets overnight, although in FX the moves didn’t follow the usual script. US equities slipped back (S&P500 -0.6%)...

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No news is good news

• Quiet start. UK & US on holidays. European equities rise & bond yields slip back. Upbeat risk tone weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• ECB speakers. Several ECB members spoke with a rate cut next week strongly hinted at. What happens after that will depend on the data.• AU data. Retail sales due today. Monthly CPI indicator released tomorrow. Weaker data could exert some near-term downward pressure on the AUD. It has been a quiet start to the week across markets, unsurprising given the UK and US were off enjoying a long weekend and the limited news...

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