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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

14 Apr 2024

Middle East tensions flare up

• Negative vibes. Sentiment soured on Friday as Middle East concerns rose. Equities & bond yields lost ground. The stronger USD pushed down the AUD.• Middle East. The situation in the Middle East remains fluid. Developments will be front of mind for investors at the start of the new week. Will oil prices spike?• Event radar. US retail sales due tonight. Several Fed members speaking this week. Across the region, China GDP, NZ CPI & AU jobs report are due. Risk sentiment ended last week on the backfoot, and geopolitical developments over the weekend point to further potential short-term turbulence....

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11 Apr 2024

ECB & US PPI calm nerves

• Improved sentiment. A soft US PPI report & ‘dovish’ ECB helped calm market nerves. US equities rebounded. The AUD clawed back some ground.• ECB policy. The door to an ECB rate cut in June looks wide open. Diverging trends with the RBA can be AUD/EUR supportive.• Data calendar. The MAS meets today, China trade data is also due, while in the US a few Fed members speak. After the burst of volatility following the hotter than projected US CPI inflation data markets settled down overnight. US equities rebounded with the S&P500 (+0.7%) back up where it was earlier in...

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10 Apr 2024

Another US CPI market jolt

• US inflation. A higher than expected US CPI generated a sharp repricing in US rate expectations. This supported the USD & dampened sentiment.• AUD tumble. The shift in market pricing & stronger USD has push the AUD lower with the AUD’s April revival unwinding overnight.• AUD crosses. The AUD also underperformed on the crosses. We think this looks a bit overdone. ECB meeting, US PPI, & Fed speakers in focus tonight. Another hotter than projected US CPI reading jolted markets overnight as it further challenged the US Fed’s view that inflation pressures are on a glidepath back down to...

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09 Apr 2024

All eyes on US inflation

• Waiting game. Most markets consolidate ahead of tonight’s US CPI report. US bond yields a little lower, while the USD index tread water.• AUD revival. Firmer base metal prices helped the AUD. The AUD’s recent rebound is inline with its seasonal pattern. Will the US CPI stop its upswing?• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ meets today. It may not (yet) tweak its forward guidance. This may see AUD/NZD’s upturn temporarily stall. Tonight’s US CPI inflation report (10:30pm AEST) is the key event for markets, and with it coming closer into view it isn’t surprising most of major asset classes consolidated overnight....

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26 Mar 2024

Holding firm

• Limited moves. Equities mixed, bond yields drifted back, & the USD is little changed. AUD is close to where it was this time yesterday.• Low vol. Measures of equity & FX volatility are now well below average. Markets could be complacent to the macro & geopolitical risks still lurking.• AU CPI. The monthly CPI indicator due today. More info on services is provided. We think inflation could re-accelerate by more than expected. Limited moves across markets overnight with not much new information coming through to shift the dial. In contrast to the small rise across European equities US stocks...

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