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03 Mar 2026

Middle East concerns rattle markets

• Market swings. Middle East conflict generated a burst of volatility overnight. Equities declined, oil prices rose. AUD traded in a ~2.5% range yesterday.• Macro news. AU Q4 GDP today. RBA Gov. Bullock noted the March meeting is “live”. China PMIs also due. US ISM services & ADP employment out tonight. Global Trends The broadening conflict in the Middle East and concerns that it could drag on longer than the “4 to 5 weeks” touted by President Trump rattled market nerves overnight. Risk sentiment soured as ‘stagflation’ worries took hold given the prospect of a simultaneous slowdown in growth and...

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Dollar powers higher as Mideast conflict widens

Good morning. The dollar is steamrolling its major rivals for a second consecutive session as geopolitical risks and inflation fears reinforce one another. With the conflict in the Middle East showing few signs of easing, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, traders are unwinding cross-border positions and retreating to the world’s deepest and most liquid financial markets in a pattern known to currency traders as the “dollar smile”*. Ten-year Treasury yields are flirting with the 4.10 threshold after their sharpest single-session rise since October, North American equity futures are setting up for a bruising loss at the...

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