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03 Mar 2025

03 Mar 2025

Tariffs & economic risks

• US risks. ISM manufacturing index underwhelmed. Pres. Trump reiterated that tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China kick in tomorrow.• Risk sentiment. Backdrop weighed on US yields & equities. AUD/USD holding its ground, but AUD underperformed the EUR, GBP, & JPY.• Volatility. More bursts of market volatility likely. Several global & domestic risk events are scheduled over the rest of this week. Global Trends Diverging regional performance across markets overnight. In Europe, efforts to forge a Ukraine/Russia peace plan and the prospect of greater regional defence spending supported equities (particularly the aerospace and defence sector), pushed up bond...

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03 Mar 2025

Dollar Retreats as Economic Data Slows and Geopolitical Shifts Bolster the Euro

The dollar is down sharply against most of its major rivals this morning as bets on the ‘US exceptionalism’ trade are unwound and investors throw money at the euro area ahead of an expected rise in government spending on defence. Defying consensus forecasts, on a year-to-date basis, the most widely-quoted measure of the greenback’s value—the DXY “Dixie” dollar index—is now down 2.3 percent, while the euro is up 1 percent, and the Japanese yen is sitting on top of the major-currency leaderboard with a near-4-percent gain. Stagflation worries are suddenly stalking the US economy and financial markets. Friday’s personal spending...

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