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12 Feb 2025

12 Feb 2025

Push pull market forces

• Headline swings. US CPI hotter than expected. Interest rate markets adjust. Jump up in the USD didn’t last as positive geopolitical news hit the wires.• FX moves. EUR rebounded on reports talks to end the Ukraine war may take place. USD/JPY rose. AUD & NZD recovered lost intra-day ground.• Volatility. We think more short-term bursts of headline driven FX volatility are likely as the macro & geopolitical issues play out. Global Trends There was another burst of volatility across markets overnight, particularly in FX, as sentiment and the USD were pushed and pulled by US economic developments and geopolitical...

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12 Feb 2025

Inflation Heats Up, Clobbering Fed Bets

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, bolstering the case for a cautious approach to easing from the Federal Reserve—and raising the odds on a rate hike at some point this year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline all-items consumer price index climbed 3.0 percent year-over-year in January, accelerating slightly from the 2.9 percent pace set in December, and rose 0.5 percent from the previous month. The core measure—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in January from the same period last year, and rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, marking...

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