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04 Nov 2024

04 Nov 2024

US election day

• Election jitters. A quiet start to the week with traders paring back some ‘Trump trades’. US equities eased & yields declined. USD a bit softer.• US politics. Polls & probability gauges suggest the result is a toss-up. Binary reaction to the outcome likely with volatility also on the horizon.• RBA today. No RBA policy changes expected. It may tweak its macro forecasts. We still think the start of its easing cycle is a story for H1 2025. It has been a relatively quiet start to the week with markets lasering in on the upcoming US Presidential Election. The narrower...

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04 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens Amid ‘Trump Trade’ Pullback

The greenback is down against all of its major rivals this morning after investors spent the weekend walking back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. Final polls released yesterday showed the race headed toward a photo finish, with NBC News deadlocked at 49 percent-and-49 percent nationally, ABC News/Ipsos giving Kamala Harris a 49 percent-to-46 percent national edge, New York Times/Siena putting the vice president ahead in five of seven swing states, and the Des Moines Register suggesting that she could win in Iowa – a state long considered a lock for Trump. Major elements of the “Trump...

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