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12 Mar 2024

12 Mar 2024

Hotter US CPI taken in stride

• US CPI. US inflation slightly higher than expected. But markets were more prepared. Equities rose, & while bond yields ticked up, USD strength was minimal.• Details matter. Some of the US CPI strength likely to reverse. US Fed to remain cautious about rate cuts near-term, but that is already priced into markets.• AUD & JPY. AUD dipped a touch, & USD/JPY rose. Japan’s Rengo wage outcomes will impact BoJ expectations, USD/JPY & the broader USD. Market focus was on the latest US CPI inflation data overnight. US headline and core (i.e. ex food and energy) rose 0.4% in February...

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12 Mar 2024

Well-prepared markets take hotter-than-expected inflation print in stride

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, suggesting that January’s hotter-than-expected print signalled a re-acceleration in underlying inflation pressures, and raising the odds on a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve at next week’s policy meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.8 percent in February from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This slightly exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the...

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12 Mar 2024

Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Release

The dollar’s selloff is slowing ahead of inflation numbers that could have a direct bearing on the policy outlook presented during next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Equity futures are trending upward, but Treasury yields are holding flat, and high-beta currencies like the Canadian dollar are coming under modest selling pressure as traders cut risk. February’s consumer price index is expected to show headline prices accelerating while the core measure slows – but considerable uncertainty remains around whether January’s hotter-than-expected numbers marked the beginning of a trend. If price growth remains stubbornly high, officials could reduce the number of expected rate...

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