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26 Feb 2024

Rate markets continue to adjust

• Yields rise. Near-term rate cut bets continue to be trimmed back. This pushed up European & US bond yields, with EUR a little firmer.• Low vol. Outside of bonds, volatility across other major asset markets is below average. Japanese inflation, Fed speakers & US data in focus today.• AUD softer. Lower base metal prices have exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD. But correlations between the AUD & iron ore aren’t what they used to be. The subdued market performance has continued with relatively modest moves across most asset classes at the start of the week. As our...

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Currency Volatility Continues to Fall

Good morning. With a barrage of economic data releases and central bank speeches scheduled in the days ahead, traders remain unwilling to take big directional positions. Treasury yields are little changed, equity futures are setting up for a flat open, oil prices are down slightly, and the dollar is holding last week’s gains. Volatility in the currency markets continues to drift lower, and it’s admittedly difficult to see what might break this dynamic. 3-month at-the-money implied option volatility We count at least fourteen appearances from Fed policymakers on the schedule this week, but most are likely to follow in Governor...

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