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13 Feb 2024

13 Feb 2024

Any juice left in the USD’s upswing?

The USD has been on a tear over early 2024, with the USD Index undergoing a round trip. The USD pull-back that transpired at the end of last year has unwound just as quickly. Given the rest of the world is a ‘price taker’ and what happens with the USD is the key cog in the FX machine, this has seen currencies like the EUR (now ~$1.0710) and the AUD (now ~$0.6460) fall back, and others such as USD/JPY (now ~150.40) and USD/SGD (now ~1.35) rise, to levels last traded in mid-November. A string of positive US data surprises, the...

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13 Feb 2024

US inflation jolts markets

• US inflation. A positive US inflation surprise rattled markets. US bond yields jumped up, equities fell, & the USD strengthened. AUD back down near ~$0.6450.• Rate pricing. Odds of a Fed rate cut in March or May have tumbled. Markets are now (finally) factoring in a similar path forward to the Fed’s ‘dot plot’.• AU events. The next AUD centric event is tomorrows labour force report. Will employment rebound from its December slump or will the cracks widen? The latest read on US inflation rattled markets overnight. US CPI positively surprised pretty much all the analysts surveyed with headline...

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