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22 Jan 2024

22 Jan 2024

Will the BoJ hold the line?

• Subdued markets. US equities added to their gains, bond yields drifted a bit lower, & the USD ticked up. AUD slipped back towards ~$0.6570.• BoJ decision. No changes by the BoJ anticipated today. But there is always scope for a surprise. If it were to occur, the ‘under-valued’ JPY would lift.• NZ inflation. Q4 NZ CPI due tomorrow. Inflation slowdown set to extend. A large drop could reinforce RBNZ rate cut views, a support for AUD/NZD. It has been quiet start to the week across markets. This isn’t surprising given the lack of economic data releases and with members...

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22 Jan 2024

Weekly Chartbook, January 22

US growth and rate expectations keep rising. Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, % The greenback could pop on a Trump victory in New Hampshire. 1-year implied option volatility, at-the-money, 21-day moving average ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June. M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA Inflation might impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar. Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. exchange rates Markets have pulled easing expectations back, but the Bank of Canada setup remains dovish.  Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate,...

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22 Jan 2024

US Equity Markets Power Higher, Sustaining Dollar Strength

Equity markets are doing their best impression of Jason Kelce at a Buffalo Bills game, roaring into the week with strong gains in pre-open futures trading. Several major indices are flirting with record highs, commodity prices are up modestly, and Treasury yields are holding steady, with the ten-year paying close to 4.1 percent, up sharply from the beginning of the year. The dollar continues to outperform as Federal Reserve expectations shift rate differentials in a more favourable direction. After a series of hotter-than-anticipated data releases and a concerted jawboning effort from policymakers, markets are now assigning sub-40-percent odds to a...

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