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18 Jan 2024

18 Jan 2024

Markets calm down, but for how long?

• Improved sentiment. Equities took the latest uptick in the US 10yr yield in their stride. Limited FX moves with the AUD a relative outperformer for a change.• AU jobs. The ‘labour force lottery’ lived up to its volatile nature. Following a few strong months employment fell sharply but unemployment held steady.• Vol. to continue. The laundry list of uncertainties and macro/geopolitical flashpoints suggests the recent volatility could be a taste of things to come. Risk sentiment improved overnight with a further modest rise in long-end bond yields not causing the same market turbulence as it has recently. On the...

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18 Jan 2024

Dollar Gains Ease As Newsflow Slows

The dollar looks set to break its four-day winning streak, reversing some of its gains as traders and investors tiptoe back into risk-sensitive assets within a quieter economic data environment. North American equity futures are building up to a mildly-positive open, Treasury yields are slipping, and most currency majors are posting incremental gains. Oil prices are pushing higher after the US hit another 14 Houthi launch sites in Yemen, and Pakistan launched an aerial assault against targets in Iran. The attack comes after an Iranian missile strike on Pakistan-based militants on Tuesday, and threatens to escalate into a wider conflict...

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18 Jan 2024

AUD volatility: a taste of things to come?

With 2023 firmly in the rear-view mirror and markets starting 2024 with a bout of central banker driven upheaval as enthusiastic interest rate cut expectations are pared back, we thought it is an opportune time to spell out our AUD thoughts. And refresh people’s minds about some of the AUD’s historic tendencies which we believe should be kept in mind when managing FX exposures, especially considering the tricky terrain markets and economies will be navigating over coming months. Regular readers of our research would be aware that after an anticipated bout of turbulence over Q3/early-Q4 2023 we were vocal regarding...

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18 Jan 2024

Rate expectations continue to adjust

• Yield rebound. Upside surprises in US retail sales & UK inflation has seen markets pare back rate cut expectations. Higher yields have supported the USD & GBP.• Negative vibes. The shifting interest rate outlook & patchy China data has dampened risk sentiment. The AUD’s slide has continued.• AU jobs. December labour force report released today. It could be a volatile month. Another positive result could help the AUD stabilise. The rebound in bond yields and the USD, and pull-back in risk assets (including the AUD) has continued with stronger US retail sales and a re-acceleration in UK inflation raising...

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