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16 Jan 2024

16 Jan 2024

No need to rush

• USD rebound. The rise in US yields on the back of comments by the Fed’s Waller has supported the USD. AUD is under ~$0.66 for the first time in a month.• Slow & steady. Waller noted cuts shouldn’t be rushed. March too soon to start, but markets already pricing in a slower & shallower cutting cycle than in the past.• Volatility. China data released today, US retail sales due tonight, & the Australian jobs report is out tomorrow. The data flow points to more volatility. A bout of market turbulence has come through with a jump in US bond...

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16 Jan 2024

Underlying Canadian Inflation Tops Forecasts

Canadian headline inflation accelerated as expected in December, but the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada firmed – helping slash odds on an imminent pivot toward easier monetary policy. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in December, up from the 3.1 percent increase recorded in November, and precisely in alignment with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell -0.3 percent – matching market forecasts. Gasoline prices fell -4.4 percent month-over-month, and food prices gained 0.3 percent. Shelter costs provided the biggest...

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16 Jan 2024

Dollar Advances As Yields Climb

With ten-year Treasury yields poking above the 4 percent threshold once again, the dollar is the only outperformer on the currency league tables this morning. The greenback is trading near a one-month high, posting gains against all of its major counterparts as risk appetite turns more subdued ahead of a speech from formerly-hawkish Federal Reserve Governor Waller at 11:00. The British pound is roughly -0.7 percent weaker after wage growth slowed sharply, supporting bets on an early pivot to easing from the Bank of England. Regular pay growth excluding bonuses cooled to 6.6 percent year over year in the three...

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