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12 Jan 2024

Markets Reset to Pre-Inflation Release Levels 

Yesterday’s inflation data failed to make a persuasive case for imminent rate cuts. Growth in both the headline and core consumer price measures declined more slowly than economists had hoped, and services ex-shelter inflation remained sticky, suggesting that the disinflation process could prove unexpectedly turbulent. But markets are back to betting on rapid monetary easing. After a brief post-release bump, ten-year yields are back below the 4 percent threshold, Fed fund futures are discounting five or more cuts by the end of 2024, and odds on a 25-basis point move at the central bank’s March meeting are holding near 70...

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