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05 Jan 2024

Solid Jobs Creation Pushes Monetary Easing Expectations Back

The US economy generated stronger wage growth and more jobs than expected in December, adding momentum to an ongoing reversal in Federal Reserve rate cut bets across the financial markets. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 216,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, remaining near historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, solidly topping expectations for a 3.9 percent increase. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 170,000-job gain, and the unemployment rate was seen moving slightly higher. Diffusion indices – which measure...

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Dollar Climbs Ahead Of Payrolls

Rate-sensitive currencies and financial assets are retreating once again as overwrought monetary easing expectations undergo a forced unwind. Odds on a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting have fallen below 65 percent from over 90 percent in December, with this morning’s non-farm payrolls report expected to show the US job creation engine continuing to churn out new roles. Markets think 170,000 new jobs were added in December, even as wages cooled and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent. Data out yesterday showed continuing claims remaining low against an improved private sector hiring backdrop. Equity futures are softer,...

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