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12 Dec 2023

US Fed in the spotlight

• Market swings. Some intra-session vol. around the US CPI. But net market moves have been modest. USD softer, though lower oil prices held down the AUD.• US inflation. Data matched predictions. Headline inflation slowed to 3.1%pa, while core steady at 4%pa. Firmer services shows the last leg could be difficult.• US Fed. No policy change expected. While the Fed should reiterate it may do more if needed, we think the forecasts should show that the next move will be a rate cut. There has been a bit of market volatility overnight around the release of the latest US CPI...

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US price growth fades, putting Fed in neutral

US consumer inflation softened as expected last month, but underlying price pressures remained stubbornly strong, reinforcing odds on a more neutral stance from the Federal Reserve at tomorrow’s meeting – and beyond.  According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 4.0 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely in line with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release.  On a headline all-items...

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Dollar fades into inflation print

Treasury yields are down, equity futures are up, and the dollar is retreating as traders take positions ahead of this morning’s inflation report. Economists think core consumer prices accelerated modestly while the headline measure remained broadly unchanged last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to begin unwinding its tight policy settings. Yesterday, the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations showed year-ahead inflation expectations falling by 0.2 percent to 3.4 percent, marking the lowest reading since April 2021. The yen is softer after bets on an abrupt change in the Bank of Japan’s policy framework suffered another setback last...

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