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08 Nov 2023

Oil slick

• Mixed markets. Equities ticked up with the S&P500 enjoying its 8th straight gain. USD index consolidated, but commodity currencies like the AUD slipped back.• Bonds & oil. The slide in long-end bond yields & oil continued. US 10yr yields are now ~50bps below the late-October peak. Oil is at a multi-month low.• AUD stumble. AUD has given back ~1/2 its recent rebound. Domestic wage & jobs data released next week could see AU rate expectations rebound. With not too much economic news most markets have consolidated over the past day. Equities have generally ticked up with the major European...

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All talk, no action in markets

The dollar is staging a modest rebound after a cast of hawkish Fed speakers worked to put the rate cut genie back in the bottle yesterday. In a series of appearances, Bowman, Goolsbee and Logan all noted that inflation remained too high and the labour market was still healthy by pre-pandemic standards, and Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg there’d been “no discussion” of lowering interest rates among policymakers. Bets on at least four quarter-point cuts by early 2025 slipped slightly through the session, and Treasury yields retraced some of their gains. More Fedspeak is in the offing today: Traders are expecting...

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