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16 Oct 2023

16 Oct 2023

Shifting sentiment

• Positive vibes. Equities & bond yields rose, & the USD eased as diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider Middle East conflict calmed nerves.• AUD bounce. The backdrop supported the AUD. RBA minutes released today. China data due tomorrow, with new RBA Gov. Bullock also speaking.• US data. US retail sales & industrial production data released tonight. The US economy is consumer driven. There are signs spending is cooling. A reversal of fortunes overnight with financial markets starting the week on a more positive footing. In terms of the Middle East diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider conflict,...

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16 Oct 2023

Glasses Half Empty

Mashing this morning’s Bank of Canada third-quarter Survey of Consumer Expectations and Business Outlook Survey together, it’s clear that businesses and households and businesses are aware – perhaps more than markets – of the lagged effects of monetary tightening. Both consumers and businesses are relatively optimistic on employment conditions in the years ahead, but seem resigned to elevated levels of inflation, and most think the adverse impact of central bank monetary tightening has yet to hit the economy. This runs contrary to consensus forecasts, which are – broadly speaking – set for a “soft landing”, but it wouldn’t be entirely...

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16 Oct 2023

Jaw-jaw helps offset war-war

Good morning and happy Monday. Four major forces are acting on currency markets ahead of the North American open: Last week’s flight to safety is losing momentum as world leaders make a concerted push to minimize spillover risks ahead of an expected Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Both major oil benchmarks are giving back some of Friday’s gains, Treasury yields are renewing their push higher and equity futures are pointing to a softer open after US president Joe Biden said he supported efforts to eliminate the terrorists who attacked Israel, while noting that “Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas...

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