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18 Sep 2023

18 Sep 2023

Waiting game

• Quiet markets. US equities flat, bond yields mixed. AUD consolidates. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of this weeks offshore central bank meetings.• ECB signals. EUR a bit firmer following reports the ECB is looking at ways to mop up the QE driven excess liquidity in the banking system.• Local trends. RBA minutes today. Population growth is booming. GDP is a volume measure. This can partially offset the drag from higher rates. It has been a quiet start to what could be a busy week given the upcoming central bank meetings. European equities played a bit of catch up...

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18 Sep 2023

In debt we trust

In dollar terms, the United States is the world’s most indebted country, with a net international investment position – the difference between US residents’ foreign financial assets and liabilities – increasing to –$16.75 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. If the US were subject to the same constraints as a household or business, this would be terribly alarming – and indeed, charts are frequently shared on Twitter and other social media sites purporting to show the imminent collapse of the economy as debt levels reach a tipping point (another, particularly confused one,...

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18 Sep 2023

Risk appetite falls into heavy week

Currency traders are squaring their positions this morning ahead of a series of potentially market-moving data releases and policy decisions in the coming days. The dollar is inching lower, two-year yields are holding above the 5-percent threshold, and equity futures are setting up for a softer session. The subdued open comes after a week in which Treasury yields snapped higher, stocks fell, and the greenback broke an extended winning streak. With August core consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales all coming in hot, investors began to lose hope in a rapid pivot toward looser monetary policy from the Federal...

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