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31 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Mixed markets. The USD clawed back ground against the softer EUR & GBP. AUD/USD held up with AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP rising.• China pulse. Forward components point to a pick up in the manufacturing PMI. Authorities also continue to pull on policy support levers.• US payrolls. US labour market in focus tonight. We think there could be an uneven reaction with a downside surprise likely to generate a larger (negative) jolt on the USD. Markets consolidated overnight with the economic data generally inline with expectations, and with participants having one-eye on tonight’s US labour market report (10:30pm AEST). Equities drifted...

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US exceptionalism trade lifts dollar, supports rate expectations across the curve

Risk appetite remains relatively strong after a series of data releases – including today’s spending and inflation numbers – helped bolster bets on a “soft landing” in the US economy that could convince the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at prevailing levels for an extended period. The major North American equity indices are inching higher, Treasury yields are climbing off three-week lows, and commodity prices are enjoying a brief period of respite, even as the dollar – symbol of American economic outperformance – pushes higher against its major counterparts. North America American consumers spent more than expected last month, defying...

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