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28 Jul 2023

Strong consumer demand and softening inflation bolster US “soft landing” hopes

With American households honouring their time-honoured role in acting as global consumers-of-last-resort and inflation pressures continuing to subside, financial markets are seeing a broad-based rise in risk-taking activity this morning. Equity futures are pointing to a strong open, the dollar is ticking lower, and high-beta currencies are outperforming after a raft of softer inflation data added to yesterday’s strong second-quarter growth print in suggesting that the US economy is shrugging off the impact of higher rates – and could continue to power global growth in the months to come. The yen is up modestly and global yields are higher after the...

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BoJ Loosens Its Grip

The tide looks to be (finally) turning when it comes to the Bank of Japan’s ultra-accommodative policy stance, albeit slowly. At today’s meeting, while the BoJ maintained its policy rate at -0.1% and its 10-year bond yield target at “about 0%”, its yield curve control framework was adjusted. Rather than having a rigid +/- 0.5% band around its 10-year bond yield target, things will now be controlled “flexibly”. Importantly, the BoJ also announced that it will offer to purchase 10-year Japanese government bonds at 1% each business day. In our mind this provides a guide to the BoJ’s new upper...

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