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18 Jul 2023

Still solid US retail spending

• Mixed fortunes. Equities higher, while European bond yields fell after the ECB’s Knot watered down future rate hike expectations.• US data. Headline retail sales a bit softer, but the control group (which feeds into US GDP) was stronger. We expect another Fed hike next week.• NZ CPI. Annual headline inflation stepped down. Inflation is past its peak & NZ growth is slowing. We see AUD/NZD moving higher over the medium-term. Diverging trends across markets. Solid earnings results and decent US retail sales data (see below) has helped underpin equities. The lift in bank and artificial intelligence linked stocks pushed...

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North American data prints bolster soft landing hopes

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but underlying consumer demand remained strong, bolstering “soft landing” hopes in financial markets. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in June, missing market forecasts for a 0.5 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell 1.4 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.3 percent gain. Receipts in the food and beverage category fell -0.7 percent, and restaurant sales gained just 0.1 percent. Sales at general merchandise stores inched -0.1 percent...

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