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10 Jul 2023

China has a different inflation problem

• Mixed markets. US yields & the USD Index lower. But AUD underperforms as concerns about China’s economic trajectory remain in place.• China deflation risks. China CPI/PPI inflation underwhelmed, another sign the post-COVID recovery is faltering. Measures are needed to reinvigorate demand.• US inflation. US CPI (released Weds night AEST) is a focal point. Base-effects point to a further step down in inflation. This could exert more pressure on the USD. A relatively quiet start to the new week across markets. Overnight, European and US equities posted modest gains (S&P500 +0.2%), oil prices gave back some ground (WTI crude -0.9%),...

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Price action slows ahead of US inflation and Canadian policy decision

Markets seem to be tiptoeing into a data-light week with a sense of trepidation.Equity futures are weaker, Treasury yields are ticking lower, and benchmark dollar indices are pushing higher ahead of the opening bell, suggesting that risk appetites remain relatively constrained after Friday’s big moves. The euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are all sitting in defensive positions, with technical indicators pointing to rangebound price action ahead. Inflation flat-lined in China last month, and a sharp decline in producer prices suggested that the world’s biggest manufacturer is beginning to export deflation. Headline consumer prices were unchanged in June relative to a year earlier, and...

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