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31 May 2023

31 May 2023

Global growth concerns

• Growth worries. Weaker than expected China PMIs added to global growth concerns. This has dampened risk sentiment. AUD touched a new ~6-month low.• AU CPI. Inflation indicator re-accelerated more than expected. Data bolsters the case for another RBA hike. Tomorrow’s minimum/award wage decision is important.• USD firm. The USD remains near its recent highs. US ISM manufacturing survey released tonight, with non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Another negative night for risk sentiment with more signs the world economic downturn is gathering pace coming through. Across equities, the EuroStoxx50 fell 1.7% and the US S&P500 was down 0.6%. This followed...

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31 May 2023

Israeli Shekel Snapshot

Exhibit 1 US household spending remains remarkably strong. Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD Exhibit 2 Labour market conditions are tight. Initial unemployment claims, thousands Exhibit 3 Core inflation is subsiding too slowly. All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA Exhibit 4 And financial conditions are stabilizing. Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Exhibit 5 Rate expectations are climbing. Target rate probabilities by meeting. Exhibit 6 Across the front end. Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, % Exhibit 7 And the dollar is regaining ground. DXY Dollar...

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31 May 2023

Dollar Strengthens into Month End

As the last trading day of the month begins, it’s clear that equity investors aren’t following the “sell in May and go away” dictum, but others are growing more cautious on an increasingly-bifurcated worldwide growth outlook. US Treasury yields – standing in for US growth expectations – continue to climb, while oil prices – a proxy for global demand – are broadly lower, with both key benchmarks down almost 3-percent overnight and off nearly 10 percent for the month. The trade-weighted dollar looks set to end the month having gained nearly 2.75 percent, with higher US yields and increasing scepticism on...

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