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22 May 2023

22 May 2023

US debt ceiling still in focus

• US debt ceiling. Talks are set to restart today. A deal is needed to be agreed quickly given the ‘x-date’ is fast approaching.• Fed pricing. Markets pricing in a chance of a June Fed hike, but are still looking for ~2-3 cuts by January. An unwind of these bets could be USD positive.• AUD holding. Limited local data flow. Global events will drive the AUD near-term. AUD/NZD sub 1.06. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting is in focus. It has been a quiet start to the new week with limited moves across markets as participants await the latest round of US debt...

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22 May 2023

Dancing on the US debt ceiling

US debt ceiling shenanigans, a repeated source of market volatility over the past decade or so, are rearing their head once again. After tentative progress was made last week negotiations look to have reached an impasse. Reportedly, the Republicans are continuing to push for sizeable reductions in government spending, particularly in areas such as healthcare, education, and housing, while also maintaining high spending on defense and the Trump-era corporate tax cuts. The two sides have agreed to resume talks with President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy set to meet on Monday, but things clearly remain fluid. The clock is ticking...

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