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02 May 2023

02 May 2023

Banking sector worries reemerge

• Risks reemerge. Renewed US banking sector concerns have weighed on risk sentiment. Bond yields, equities & oil prices fell overnight.• AUD volatility. AUD spiked after the ‘surprise’ RBA rate hike, but offshore developments have seen the AUD give back a lot of its gains.• US Fed in focus. Tomorrow’s US Fed meeting is the next major event. Another hike is expected. We think the Fed could push back on expectations rate cuts could start in H2. This could give the USD a boost. The relative calm across markets hasn’t lasted. Risk sentiment soured overnight as concerns about the US...

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02 May 2023

RBA: Once more, with feeling

A ‘pause’ doesn’t last as long as it used to. In a surprise to most analysts and interest rate markets, the RBA raised the cash rate by another 25bps at today’s meeting, taking it up to 3.85%. The move means that a cumulative 375bps worth of rate hikes have been delivered so far this cycle. As our chart shows, this is by far the most aggressive tightening cycle the RBA has unleashed for several decades. According to the RBA, inflation has “passed its peak” but at 7% it is “still too high and it will be some time yet before...

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