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24 Apr 2023

24 Apr 2023

Chartbook: April 24

Exhibit 1 Currency markets are still unwinding last year’s excesses. Change in exchange rate relative to January 02, 2022, % Exhibit 2 Japanese inflation rates remain elevated, but are heading for a rollover. Annual change in core inflation rate, % Exhibit 3 Rate expectations remain deeply divergent. Implied change in policy rate relative to April 24, 2023, % Exhibit 4 The economy’s momentum hasn’t slowed. Subcomponent contributions to forecasted growth aggregate, % Exhibit 5 Wage growth is still running hot. 3-month average of median wage growth, % Exhibit 6 But credit growth is slowing. Deposits, Consumer Loans, Commercial and Industrial...

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24 Apr 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/JPY – change is on the horizon

AUD/JPY has perked up a bit over the past few weeks, with the ~4% rebound since late-March helping push the pair back into positive territory for the year-to-date. In our view, the bounce back in AUD/JPY is unlikely to extend much further, at least not on a sustainable basis, and we would look to use any spikes back into the low- to mid-90s opportunistically. We think the unfolding macro environment is likely to see AUD/JPY fall back down to the mid-80’s over the coming months, largely as a reflection of JPY strength which we believe is likely to come about...

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