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13 Apr 2023

13 Apr 2023

MAS assuming the brace position

At its 14 April policy review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore surprised markets by maintaining “the prevailing rate of appreciation” of the SGD NEER. The MAS also held the width and center of the currency band steady. This reflected the MAS’ relatively more downbeat view of global and domestic growth, and expectations inflation will slow materially over 2023 (see below for more details). In the words of the MAS, given the “intensifying risks” to growth and unfolding turn in inflation, it judges the current SGD NEER appreciation path “is sufficiently tight and appropriate for securing medium-term price stability”. As the...

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13 Apr 2023

USD downturn

• USD lower. Weaker US jobless claims and PPI data has reinforced thinking the US Fed is nearing the end of its hiking phase. This has weighed on the USD.• AUD rebound. The weaker USD, positive risk sentiment, and repricing in RBA rate hike expectations following the stronger labour force report have boosted the AUD.• US retail sales in focus. US retail sales are released tonight. Leading indicators point to a softer result. A positive night for risk sentiment, with softer US data supporting expectations the US Fed could be nearing the end of its rate hiking phase. Equities were...

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13 Apr 2023

Australian labour market: As good as it gets

The Australian labour force report is notoriously volatile, and the March data generated yet another, albeit positive, surprise. Employment rose more than anticipated, with 53,000 jobs added in the month. This follows the ~64,000 jobs created in February. The mix was also favorable, with full-time employment leading the way (+72,200 in March). Labour market conditions remain tight. The employment-to-population ratio is historically high (now 64.4%), as is the participation rate, while unemployment is still very low. At 3.5% the unemployment rate remains near the lowest it has been since the early-1970’s. Indeed, on the monthly data going back to 1978,...

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