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31 Mar 2023

US Inflation Moderates, Canadian Economy Grows More Than Expected

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure missed expectations in February, weakening the case for another hike at the central bank’s May meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in February from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 5 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating from January’s Social Security-boosted 0.6-percent gain. Incomes were 6.2 percent higher relative to the same month...

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Out Like a Lamb

The month of March is set to end on a quieter note as banking concerns ease, the dollar stabilizes, and volatility measures subside. Treasury yields are steady ahead of new consumer spending data and an update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, equity futures are strengthening, and risk-sensitive currencies are edging higher – suggesting that investors could be positioning for a generalized bear market bounce in early April. Mexico’s peso remains relatively unmoved after the Banxico delivered a widely-expected rate hike and shifted its forward guidance in a firmly data-dependent direction. After telegraphing the intention to do so at last month’s...

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