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20 Mar 2023

Calm before the Fed storm?

• Intra-day vol. Equity and bond markets have whipped around over the past 24hrs in response to the UBS/Credit Suisse deal. In the end risk appetite improved.• Fed in focus. Measures deployed to suppress contagion risks should keep the door open for the Fed to hike rates again in its fight against inflation.• AUD near a 2-week high. Positive risk sentiment can support the AUD further near-term, but the Fed decision could see it fall back later this week. Markets continue to experience intra-day volatility, with global banking developments still centerstage. The news that UBS is buying Credit Suisse was...

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20 Mar 2023

Official Policy Actions Ease Market Tensions

Risk aversion appears to be ebbing in financial markets after Swiss regulators forced UBS and Credit Suisse together, and major central banks agreed to increase swap line availability. The dollar is softer, Treasury yields are down, and North American equity futures are stabilizing. We remain convinced that the US and European banking sectors are well capitalized and flush with liquidity, meaning that official policy actions should prove successful in preventing a broad-based meltdown in global financial markets.  But signs of potential contagion remain obvious: implied volatility levels are elevated, regional bank indices are sitting on losses, and commodities are lower....

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