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09 Mar 2023

09 Mar 2023

BoJ & US labour market in focus

• Shaky risk sentiment. Bond yields fall as some partial data points to a looming turn in the labour market. Equities also under pressure.• US labour report. Market reaction to the outcome should be binary. A strong (weak) result would boost (weigh) on the USD.• BoJ announcement. Will outgoing BoJ Governor Kuroda spring one last surprise? If he does, the JPY would strengthen. Our base case is for no change today. Although the economic news flow has been light, there were some notable market moves overnight, generated by lower tier US labour market data. In a break from the recent...

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09 Mar 2023

Talk Is Expensive

It is increasingly obvious that profit expansion has played an uncomfortably-large role in sustaining high inflation. Corporate margins have expanded dramatically, with many of the world’s largest businesses earning more revenue even as volumes have fallen. Politicians in the US and Canada have seized on the issue, and have increasingly called out corporate “greed” as a major factor in driving prices higher.  But what if it’s all in our heads? Or, more precisely, what if major corporations are only able to raise prices because consumer psychology has shifted after having been constantly bombarded by scary headlines about goods shortages, supply...

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09 Mar 2023

Shock and Awwww

Markets are little changed this morning as a sense of calm returns after Tuesday’s traumatic reset in rate expectations. The dollar is dropping against most majors, yields are lower, and equity indices are slightly weaker ahead of two critical pieces of economic data – tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report and next week’s consumer-price index – that could change the monetary policy outlook. In yesterday’s Congressional testimony, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell largely repeated Tuesday’s hawkish message, but added cautious qualifiers to soften the blow. “We have not made any decision about the March meeting,” he said, “If — and I stress...

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