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28 Feb 2023

Growth momentum slowing

Q4 2022 Australian GDP was weaker than predicted. The domestic economy expanded by a sluggish 0.5% (mkt 0.8%), with annual growth stepping down to 2.7%pa. A closer look at the detail doesn’t paint that much of a rosy picture. Net exports were a large positive contributor to growth in Q4 (adding 1.1%pts to the quarterly result), thanks to a rebound in coal exports and travel services which were boosted by the inflow of tourists and returning students. Consumption of services was also positive once again, though the slowing trend suggests the post-lockdown catch-up spending on services has now largely run...

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Inflation continues to surprise

• Eurozone inflation surprise. Eurozone bond yields jumped up after a run of higher than expected inflation prints.• USD still firm. The USD remains near recent highs, with relative interest rate expectations still in favour of the US.• AUD risk events. Q4 GDP, January inflation, and China PMIs are released today. AUD intra-day volatility should pick up, but will the underlying trend change? Interest rate expectations and bond markets remain in focus, though overnight attention was in Europe rather than the US. Bond yields across the Eurozone rose ~5-8bps as markets re-priced how high the ECB policy rate could end...

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