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USD

03 May 2024

US Job Gains Slow, Reassuring Markets, While Pointing to Weaker Growth

The US job creation engine decelerated in April, relieving financial markets, but pointing to economic turbulence ahead. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 175,000 jobs were added in the month, undershooting the 240,000 consensus forecast, and missing the 200,000 that is now believed sufficient to offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to the prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 22,000 positions. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent – above the 3.8 percent expected – and wage gains slowed, helping ease inflation fears. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.2 percent...

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03 May 2024

Risk Appetite Improves as US Payrolls Report Looms

The US dollar is cruising into a third day of losses and Treasury yields are softening even as investors brace for what is expected to be another strong payrolls report. North American equity futures are rallying ahead of the open after Apple reported stronger-than-expected earnings and provided a more optimistic sales forecast, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are advancing off very low levels. Economist estimates going into this morning’s non-farm payrolls number are widely dispersed, ranging from a 150,000-position gain on the low end to 280,000 on the high end, with the median landing near the 240,000 mark....

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02 May 2024

Will the US labour market crack?

• Post Fed. US yields & the USD have remained on the backfoot after the Fed wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. JPY rebound also weighed on the USD.• US jobs. AUD revival continued. US jobs in focus tonight. Reaction likely to be binary. Weaker (stronger) result set to be AUD positive (negative).• RBA looming. RBA next Tuesday. We think the Board could discuss the merits of another hike. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. The washout across markets from yesterday’s less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting has continued. Bond yields in Europe and the US have fallen further with...

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01 May 2024

Higher for longer Fed already priced in

• Expectations matter. US Fed failed to live up to the markets “hawkish” thinking. Rates set to stay higher for longer, but this was already priced.• Yields adjust. Fed Chair Powell doesn’t see more hikes. US yields slipped back & the USD softened. AUD recovered ~1/2 of yesterday’s fall.• JPY swings. Another sharp jump in the JPY caught the markets eye after the Fed. US jobs report (Friday night) the next major market event. The US Fed meeting was in focus this morning. As per our thoughts outlined over the past week the Fed failed to live up to very...

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01 May 2024

Fed Signals Concern Over Stubborn Inflation

As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high for a sixth consecutive meeting, and signalled a desire to wait for more data before beginning an easing cycle. In the statement setting out its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee outlined its deepening concern over the pace of disinflation in the US economy, saying “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the committee’s 2-percent inflation objective”, removing a previous reference to inflation that had “eased” over the past year. Risks to accomplishing both sides of the central bank’s...

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