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USD

01 Oct 2024

Middle East tensions rock the boat

• Geopolitics. Developments in the Middle East dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD a little firmer. AUD modestly lower.• Oil & vol. Brent crude prices increased, but now look to be tracking inline with fundamentals. Measures of volatility also not showing much stress.• NZD weaker. NZD fell, AUD/NZD rose. NZIER Survey showed price pressures are cooling fast raising the odds the RBNZ cuts rates by 50bps. Geopolitics trumped economics overnight with escalating tensions in the Middle East generating a bout of risk aversion. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel, a few hours after the US had...

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30 Sep 2024

US Fed remains data dependent

• China focus. The surge in China’s equity market continued yesterday. Iron ore prices also higher. This helped the AUD add to recent gains.• Fed Chair. US yields & the USD clawed back some ground in overnight trade after Chair Powell tempered expectations about outsized rate cuts.• Data driven. US Fed is data driven. Interest rate expectations & USD will be sensitive to whether US data is stronger or weaker than predicted. Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week. On the one hand the upswing in China’s equity market on the back of the stimulus push...

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29 Sep 2024

Will the US jobs market continue to buckle?

• Mixed markets. Equities in China continue to power ahead, while lower inflation weighed on European/US bond yields. USD near 2024 lows.• AUD holding. AUD remains near the top of the range it has occupied since early-2023. Diverging policy expectations & China stimulus are supportive.• Event radar. China PMIs released today. EZ CPI is out (Tues), while in the US non-farm payrolls rounds out the week. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks. Mixed fortunes across markets at the end of last week with geopolitical and economic forces push and pulling on different asset classes. China’s equity market continued to power...

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27 Sep 2024

US Inflation Subsides and Canadian Economy Flatlines

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in August and personal spending missed expectations, helping bolster bets on a second consecutive oversized rate cut at the central bank’s November meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.1 percent from the prior month, undershooting market forecasts for a 0.2 percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth rose to 2.7 percent, aligning with economist estimates as base effects shifted comparisons. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.1 percent relative to the prior month, and...

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27 Sep 2024

Currency Markets Trade Mixed as Optimism Grows

The mean-reversion process that began in foreign exchange markets this summer is continuing this morning, with the dollar trading flat and other majors reversing early-year moves. A steady drumbeat of economic stimulus announcements from China is interacting with growing bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks to support global risk appetite, pouring rocket fuel into equity markets and risk-sensitive currency pairs, while driving implied volatility levels lower. Inflation in France and Spain decelerated more dramatically in September than had been expected, reinforcing market bets on more easing coming at the European Central...

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