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USD

07 Jun 2024

Jobs Numbers Beat Expectations, Lifting Yields

The US job creation engine sped up in May, further diminishing odds on a rate cut before the November election. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 272,000 jobs were added in the month, solidly overshooting the 175,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 15,000 positions. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4 percent, breaking a 28-month stretch below the 4 percent threshold, and wage gains accelerated, exacerbating...

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06 Jun 2024

More policy recalibration

• Consolidation. US equities & yields little changed. USD slightly softer with EUR inching up after the ECB cut rates but was vague about future moves.• US jobs. Monthly US employment report in focus tonight. Signs conditions are cooling could revive US Fed rate cut bets. This may drag on the USD.• Other data. China trade figures out today. New RBA Deputy Gov. Hauser speaks. Next week US Fed meets, with US CPI & AU jobs also due. Consolidation was the name of the game across most major markets overnight. While European equities edged up (EuroStoxx600 +0.7%) the US S&P500...

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06 Jun 2024

Market Mood Brightens

Optimism is cool again. Investors are in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s session saw a critical measure of services-sector sentiment top expectations, helping assuage recession fears and power equity indices to record levels. The dollar is softer, Treasury yields are steady, and several of the biggest US tech companies are sitting on market capitalisation gains bigger than most economies. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index clocked in at its highest level since last August, suggesting that the biggest sector in the US economy remains in rude health. The headline index hit 53.8 in early May, above the 50 threshold...

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05 Jun 2024

BoC cuts rates. ECB set to follow.

• Positive tone. Equities higher, while bond yields fell. BoC delivered its first rate cut this cycle. There were more signs the US labour market is cooling.• FX moves. Limited net moves in currencies. USD index a touch firmer, with a softer JPY the main driver. EUR & AUD treading water.• Data flow. ECB tonight. A rate cut is fully priced. Q1 AU GDP confirmed growth momentum is weak. But this is what is needed to tame inflation. It was a generally positive tone across markets overnight. European and US equities rose, with strong gains in technology stocks coming through....

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05 Jun 2024

Rate Cut Bets Resurface As Economy Slows

With the US economy showing more signs of exhaustion, traders are tiptoeing back into bets on policy easing from the Federal Reserve before year end. Treasury yields – which have provided the fuel for the dollar’s recent outperformance – are climbing off a two-day low, equity futures are advancing as odds on two rate cuts in 2024 creep higher, and the greenback itself is little changed. US job markets cooled further last month. According to yesterday’s Job Openings and Labour Turnover survey, the number of open roles in the US fell from a revised 8.355 million to 8.059 million in...

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