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USD

09 Oct 2024

US inflation & the USD

• Mixed fortunes. Equities in China tumbled, while the US S&P500 hit a record. US bond yields rose, supporting the USD. AUD lost ground.• RBNZ cuts. RBNZ slashed rates by 50bps. The harsher NZ economic climate points to more cuts. Diverging trends point to a higher AUD/NZD.• US CPI. US inflation in focus. Headline CPI projected to slow, while core CPI forecast to hold steady. US yields & USD will be sensitive to the data. A mixed performance across global markets over the past 24hrs. After its stellar run equities in China tumbled (CSI300 -7%) because of ongoing uncertainty regarding...

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09 Oct 2024

Diminished Rate Cut Hopes Weigh on Risk Appetite

The dollar is heading toward an eighth day of gains as fixed-income traders pull back on monetary easing expectations and brace for hawkish undercurrents in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding above the 4-percent threshold, North American equity futures are softening on the prospect of renewed antitrust action against Google’s parent company, and most major currencies are stuck in a defensive posture against the almighty greenback. In theory, minutes taken during last month’s Fed meeting should be stale on arrival, but could move markets nonetheless. Policymakers ultimately opted for an outsized half-percentage-point rate cut in...

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08 Oct 2024

Markets Steady As Payrolls Tumult Subsides

The dollar is consolidating near a seven-week high against its major counterparts as yield differentials normalise and safe-haven demand fades. Treasury yields are moving in opposing directions across the curve, with the two-year slipping lower even as the ten-year inches higher, and North American equity futures are positioned for a modest recovery at the open. Currency markets are seeing mixed price action after Chinese authorities disappointed investors with a smaller-than-expected stimulus announcement: the Canadian dollar and other risk-sensitive units are grinding lower, while the pound, euro, and Japanese yen are all sitting on small gains after coming under sustained selling...

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07 Oct 2024

USD revival

• Stronger USD. A positive US jobs report has seen US rate expectations reprice higher, supporting the USD. AUD has fallen to mid-September levels.• China reopening. Financial markets in mainland China reopen today after a holiday. This will be in focus, as will a briefing by its economic planners.• Local events. Consumer confidence, business conditions, RBA meeting minutes, & speech by RBA Dep. Governor Hauser also on the radar. Last Friday’s stronger than anticipated monthly US jobs report generated a market jolt. The robust job creation (non-farm payrolls rose 254,000 in August), positive revisions to history, dip in the unemployment...

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07 Oct 2024

Dollar Climbs as US Economy Bounces Off Runway

US yields are back to their highest levels since early August after Friday’s blockbuster non-farm payrolls report bolstered the likelihood of a “no landing” scenario in the economy. With investors growing more confident in an outlook in which job creation continues, growth remains robust, and inflation moderates more slowly, the Federal Reserve is now seen easing policy at a more gradual pace than expected only a week ago. Two- and ten-year interest rates holding near the 4-percent threshold, North American equity markets are setting up for a negative open, and the dollar is heading toward posting a sixth daily gain,...

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