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USD

10 Jul 2024

Will the US CPI jolt markets?

• Mixed markets. Equities push higher with long-end yields a bit lower. USD consolidates. AUD treading water near the top of its multi-month range.• RBNZ shift. A change in the RBNZ’s tone. Door to rate cuts opening. AUD/NZD’s upswing continues. AUD/NZD at its highest since Q4 2022.• US CPI. Challenging base-effects could keep annual inflation steady. But the monthly pulse expected to be soft. Something for everyone likely in the data. There was generally an upbeat tone across markets overnight, although that didn’t flow through to the major currencies as they remained range bound. US equities powered ahead with a...

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10 Jul 2024

Markets Hold Firm After Cautious Fedspeak

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was disappointingly non-committal on the likelihood of a September rate cut in yesterday’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, explicitly saying “I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of future actions”. The Fed Funds futures curve remained essentially unchanged, with two moves priced in this year, and roughly four expected by June 2025. Dovish hints were there, though, for those determined to find them. In noting that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” saying that labour costs are “not a source of inflationary pressures now,” and emphasising the...

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09 Jul 2024

Hold the line

• Consolidation. US stocks & yields range bound. USD index a touch firmer, but AUD holds its ground thanks to some outperformance on the crosses.• Fed speak. Chair Powell didn’t generate fireworks. Data will guide the Fed, though US labour market trends are becoming more important.• RBNZ today. No change expected. This is a review not a forecast update. Leaning against the markets ‘dovish’ pricing could see AUD/NZD slip back. In contrast to some of the moves in Europe it was another relatively quiet night in US markets with the major asset classes range bound. In Europe, nervousness about the...

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09 Jul 2024

Fed Chair Powell Stays Neutral in Senate Testimony

In this morning’s Congressional testimony, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell avoided clearly telegraphing a September rate cut, instead maintaining the nuanced stance that has characterised his comments over the last month. According to remarks prepared for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, released shortly before the live appearance, Powell underlined a growing focus on both sides of the central bank’s dual mandate, saying “the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are coming into better balance”. On price risks, the chair said “inflation has eased notably in recent years,” but remains above target, and is showing only “modest further progress”...

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09 Jul 2024

Markets Rise on Expected Dovish Message from Fed Chair

The dollar is climbing off a nearly one-month low and measures of risk sentiment are improving as traders jostle for position ahead of this morning’s Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Powell is widely expected to adopt a dovish stance, describing a more “balanced” outlook, with downside risks in the labour market beginning to outweigh inflation in driving monetary policy calculations. In prepared comments released ahead of his appearance before the Senate banking committee, the Fed chair is likely to acknowledge signs of slowing momentum in the central bank’s preferred economic indicators, with price growth cooling, consumer spending ebbing,...

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