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31 Jul 2024

Currency Market Price Action Begins to Accelerate

The Bank of Japan raised benchmark lending rates and announced plans to cut its monthly bond purchases by half in last night’s meeting, moving closer to unwinding an unconventional monetary policy programme that began in the late nineties. Surprising—but not shocking—market participants, the central bank under Governor Kazuo Ueda lifted the target for the uncollateralised overnight call rate to 0.25 percent, up from the previous zero-to-0.10 percent range, and said it would gradually reduce government bond purchases to around ¥3 trillion a month by early 2026, down from the current ¥6 trillion. With internal Bank forecasts pointing to a self-reinforcing...

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31 Jul 2024

CPI washes away RBA rate hike prospects

A surprise in the Q2 AU CPI, though for the first time in a few months it looks a bit more favourable for indebted households and businesses. While headline CPI nudged up inline with consensus forecasts to 3.8%pa, the important core inflation measure (i.e. the trimmed mean) was a touch softer than built up expectations. Core inflation rose 0.8% in Q2 with the annual rate slipping to 3.9%pa (chart 1). We think this should see the RBA hold fire and keep interest rates steady at its 6 August meeting. The unwind in Australian interest rate expectations, and paring back of...

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30 Jul 2024

Jam-packed macro calendar

• Cross-currents. Sell-off in US tech stocks resumes. US bond yields lower, while in FX the USD consolidated. AUD range bound over the past 24hrs.• Q2 CPI. Australian inflation due today. Data will make or break the case for another RBA hike. Consensus forecasts are above the RBA’s assumptions.• Global events. Offshore the China PMIs, EZ CPI, & US ECI are due. The BoJ also meets, while tomorrow morning the US Fed delivers its decision. There were a few renewed wobbles in markets overnight ahead of a jam-packed 24hrs of economic releases and central bank decisions. The sell-off in US...

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30 Jul 2024

Currency Traders Keep Powder Dry Ahead of Looming Event Risks

So far, so good. A potentially-dangerous week in foreign exchange markets has started quietly, with most major currency pairs remaining tightly rangebound as traders brace for a raft of central bank decisions, data releases, and earnings reports over the coming days. The dollar is stable, Treasury yields are flatlining, and equity futures are setting up for a modestly stronger open. The Canadian dollar and other risk proxies are holding near Friday’s closing levels after the US Treasury Department’s latest borrowing estimate met market expectations, leaving bond yields flat during yesterday’s session, and reducing anxiety ahead of tomorrow’s quarterly refunding announcement....

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29 Jul 2024

The calm before the storm?

• Quiet start. No major data or news overnight. Major asset classes contained to recent ranges. AUD hovering near its 1-year average, NZD a bit weaker.• Busy few days. Several events looming. In the US there are a few jobs indicators due over coming days, with the US Fed also meeting.• AU CPI. Quarterly inflation due tomorrow. This is a more detailed set of figures. Consensus looking for core inflation to come in above the RBA’s forecasts. It has been a quiet start to the week, unsurprising given the lack of economic data and news. In contrast to Eurozone equities...

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