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USD

21 Jan 2025

Currency Markets Retreat as Tariff Nerves Fray

Currency traders are suffering from whiplash after Donald Trump made volatility great again in his first day back in office. The dollar is on the offensive and currencies like the peso, Canadian dollar, and euro are down after the president said he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico on February 1. In an unscripted conversation with reporters last night, Trump said the United States’ closest neighbours were allowing “mass numbers of people to come in and fentanyl to come in,” calling Canada “a very bad abuser”. Trump also warned he “may” impose a universal...

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20 Jan 2025

Trump & tariffs

• US politics. President Trump is officially back in power. Reports tariffs could be implemented in a ‘measured way’ eased market nerves.• USD trends. Lack of follow through of election tariff threats exerted downward pressure on the USD. AUD & NZD bounced back.• Still watching. Various policies will be implemented. Vol. likely over period ahead. Short-term USD could ease helping AUD claw back more ground. Global Trends US politics has been in focus. Earlier today President Trump was inaugurated as the 47th US President. Outside of the inauguration there was little for markets to digest. US bond and equity markets...

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20 Jan 2025

Markets Rally as Trump Backs Off Tariff Threats

Financial markets are staging an across-the-board relief rally after the Wall Street Journal said president-elect Donald Trump intends to stop short of hitting major trading partners with tariffs on his first day in office. Instead, he plans to issue a directive that asks federal agencies to “investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits and address unfair trade and currency policies by other nations”. Most major currencies are up roughly 1 percent against the dollar—corresponding to our estimates of the tariff impact that had been priced in ahead of the article’s release—with the safe-haven Swiss franc the only exception among developed-market units....

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20 Jan 2025

Markets Stay on Edge Ahead of Inauguration

An uneasy calm is settling on currency markets as traders brace for a “shock and awe” campaign on the policy front when Donald Trump takes office for a second time this afternoon. Ten-year Treasury yields are under pressure after last week’s softer-than-feared inflation and retail sales numbers, the dollar is retreating against most of its rivals on reports of a “very good” call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping over the weekend, and the euro and pound are advancing on a narrowing in cross-Atlantic rate differentials. Price action in currency markets could intensify shortly after the inauguration ceremony concludes....

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19 Jan 2025

Get set for Trump 2.0

• Positive tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD rose at the end of last week. US data remains positive. Markets also positioning for Trump 2.0.• US policy. Pres. Trump will be in the drivers seat. Will he announce a range of measures after coming into power or is too much expected?• Event Radar. US Pres. Inauguration (Tues), NZ CPI (Weds), BoJ & MAS meetings (Fri), & global PMIs (Fri) in focus this week. Global TrendsGlobal equities ended last week on a positive note ahead of today’s US holiday and the US Presidential Inauguration (Tues 4am AEDT). A positive...

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