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USD

26 Aug 2024

Don’t fight the Fed

Don’t fight the US Federal Reserve. The old market saying is back with a vengeance following Chair Powell’s explicit ‘dovish’ pivot in his latest speech at 2024 Jackson Hole Symposium. After being laser focused on upside inflation worries over the past few years the pendulum has clearly swung to the other part of the Fed’s ‘dual mandate’ with downside risks to employment now front of mind. Importantly, in the words of Chair Powell “the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data,...

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25 Aug 2024

The time has come

• Dovish Powell. US Fed Chair gave strong signals the start of the rate cutting cycle is approaching. Focus now on downside labour market risks.• Market jolt. Equities & commodities jumped, bond yields & the USD declined. AUD at the top of its 7-month range. EUR highest since mid-2023.• Event radar. Locally, July CPI (Weds), CAPEX (Thurs), & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, Eurozone inflation & US PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Markets ended last week on a positive note with the more dovish than anticipated message from US Fed Chair Powell boosting risk sentiment (see below). US equities...

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23 Aug 2024

Powell Adds to Dollar Selling With Increased Emphasis on Employment Risks

In this morning’s opening comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell avoided clearly telegraphing an accelerated easing cadence in months ahead, but noted growing concern about job market risks, helping ratify market expectations for a rapid easing cadence in the months ahead. In a widely-anticipated acknowledgement of a more balanced outlook, he said officials would do “everything we can to support a strong labour market as we make further progress toward price stability”, warning that “the upside risks to inflation have diminished, and the downside risks to employment have increased”. “The labour market is no...

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23 Aug 2024

Markets Wait to Exhale

Global risk appetite is improving, but trading liquidity remains thin ahead of this morning’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The dollar is retreating, the pound and euro are inching higher, Treasury yields are flat, and equity futures are pointing to gains at the North American open. Odds on a half-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting have fallen sharply from the early-August peak, but markets nonetheless expect Powell to deliver a distinctly dovish outlook, setting the stage for at least one outsized move in the autumn months by emphasising downside...

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22 Aug 2024

Reversal of fortune

• Market turn. US equities dipped, while bond yields & the USD rose. The reversal has taken some of the heat out of the AUD.• Data pulse. Solid US data & ‘cautious’ comments from Fed officials about the looming rate cut cycle underpinned the moves.• Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. A further push back on aggressive rate cut bets could see the USD’s revival extend. A reversal of fortune in markets over the past 24hrs. US equities dipped (S&P500 -0.9%), with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.7%). US bond yields have risen by ~5-7bps across the curve with the...

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