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USD

Holding steady

• US holiday. Quiet start to the week with the US on holiday. European yields ticked up, while in FX the AUD has been a relative outperformer.• Iron ore. Sluggish China PMI data has weighed on iron ore. But limited AUD spillover, inline with the low correlation with prices over recent years.• US data. Release calendar heats up with US ISM out tonight. Various jobs metrics due the next few days. Positive data could give the USD a boost. With US markets closed for the Labour Day holiday swings across the major asset classes have been minimal at the start...

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Will US payrolls rebound?

• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields nudged up. US holiday tonight but there is plenty of important data on the horizon.• USD bounce. Higher US yields generated a bit of USD support. AUD eased. Markets still look to be pricing in too much US Fed easing, in our view.• Event radar. Locally, Q2 GDP & a speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. Offshore, US jobs data due with non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 (+1%) now fractionally under its record high. The early-August panic volatility has faded...

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US Inflation Eases, Leaving Policy Expectations Intact … For Now

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in July, helping ratify market expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, without bolstering the case for a bigger move. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, aligning with market forecasts for a maintenance of June’s pace. On a year over year basis, core price growth fell to 2.6 percent, slightly below economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.2 percent relative to the prior month,...

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Dollar Reverses Higher as Economy Refuses to Slow

The dollar looks set to close out August on a slightly stronger footing as signs of economic resilience help bolster the case for a more cautious rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are ratcheting incrementally higher, stock markets are advancing – led by the biggest technology names – and most major currencies are trading sideways ahead of the North American open. Yesterday’s data releases showed the US economy defying the doom-and-gloom crowd. Real gross domestic product growth was revised upward for the second quarter from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent, accelerating sharply from the first quarter’s 1.4 percent...

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Swings & roundabouts

• Mixed markets. US equities dip with Nvidia lower in after hours trading. USD a touch firmer. AUD still hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• AU inflation. Headline CPI slows, but not as much as predicted. Underlying inflation still sticky. RBA unlikely to ‘pivot’ like the US Fed for some time.• Global data. US weekly jobless claims & German inflation due tonight. Tomorrow, Eurozone CPI & the US PCE deflator are released. Light news and data flow has kept most major asset classes range-bound over the past 24hrs. US equities slipped back ahead of the much-anticipated results update...

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