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USD

15 Dec 2024

Central banks in focus this week

• Mixed messages. Softer tone in equities. Bond yields continue to push higher. USD treads water, with a firmer EUR offset by a weaker JPY.• AUD & NZD. NZD tracking around levels last traded in late-2022. AUD near 2024 lows. Will this run continue or will the USD pause for breath?• Event radar. The China data batch, global PMIs, and US Fed/Bank of Japan meetings are the key events to watch this week. The divergent market trends continued into the end of last week. Equities had another soft session with a large drop in China (CSI300 -2.4%) leading the way...

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12 Dec 2024

Macro trends support the USD

• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More moves flagged near-term. Diverging trends with US Fed weigh on EUR. USD firm. AUD whipped around.• AU jobs. Another positive labour market report. Unemployment fell back. Odds of a February RBA move have fallen. Helpful for AUD-crosses.• Central banks. Next week focus will be on China data & central banks. BoE, BoJ, & US Fed meet. Will the US Fed signal fewer cuts in 2025? It has been another busy 24hrs in terms of economic events, although market reactions haven’t been uniform largely due to some of the outcomes failing to match...

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12 Dec 2024

ECB Cuts, US Price Pressures Rise, Dollar Holds Steady

Currency markets are seeing a modest mean-reversion move this morning, with the dollar holding firm against most of its major rivals. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 4.28 percent mark on evidence of strengthening inflation pressures, equity futures are setting up for incremental losses at the open, and commodity prices are generally trading sideways as optimism surrounding China’s stimulus efforts fades. The franc is trading near a two-week low – but is still near a two-decade high against the euro – after the Swiss National Bank delivered a larger-than-expected half percentage point rate cut in this morning’s decision. With...

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11 Dec 2024

Jobs report in focus today

• Mixed signals. US CPI matched forecasts boosting expectations for a Fed cut next week. US equities rose but so did bond yields. USD firm.• Policy trends. BoC cut by 50bps. But flagged a more measured pace. ECB expected to cut again tonight. Shifting yield spreads remain USD supportive.• AUD impulses. AUD whipped around by newsflow. AU jobs data released today. Short-term AUD reaction to data likely to be binary. It was a busy night in terms of newsflow, however, outside of a jump up in US equities most other markets were well contained with the odd burst of volatility...

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11 Dec 2024

US Inflation Holds Steady, Leaving Fed Easing Bets Intact

Underlying consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, providing more evidence of a stalling disinflation process, while also giving the Federal Reserve room to continue easing policy at next week’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This matched the median consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed...

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