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03 Apr 2025

Global Selloff Ensues After Trump Rips Up World Trade Framework

Financial markets are in freefall across the planet after Donald Trump took aim at the international trading system with the most significant package of tariff increases in more than a century, threatening to inflict a third systemic blow against global growth in as many decades. The dollar is down more than 2 percent against a basket of its major counterparts, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields have fallen through the 4.05 percent threshold, and major North American equity markets are set to open more than 3 percent lower after a selloff rippled across Europe and Asia in the overnight session. Trump’s tariff...

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02 Apr 2025

Tariffied Markets Await Rose Garden Announcement

The dollar is retreating against most of its peers, Treasury yields are holding near one-month lows, and stock markets are sliding once again as the world counts down to US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement later today. Major media outlets are reporting that the administration is still working to establish the scale and scope of the reciprocal tariff plan ahead of its unveiling, which is now* scheduled to begin at 4 pm in the White House Rose Garden this afternoon. According to Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post, there are at least three architectures under...

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01 Apr 2025

RBA: Navigating the uncertainty

After kicking off its policy recalibration at its meeting in February the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.1% today. This was widely expected. The RBA’s post meeting statement didn’t provide any strong signals about the timing of the next possible move. This is also something Governor Bullock tried to avoid in her press conference. Uncertainty clouds the domestic and global landscape; hence the RBA is awaiting some clarity as it navigates the tricky terrain. With there being upside and downside risks around the outlook, and with the Board “cautious” about how things may pan out, the RBA reiterated...

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01 Apr 2025

Brace for tariff impact

• US tariffs. US set to unveil its latest tariffs tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty on what will be announced. This can trigger another bout of volatility.• Holding on. Equities rose overnight, while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD clawed back a bit of lost ground.• RBA hold. No change by RBA yesterday. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. There are upside & downside risks. Cut in May possible, but isn’t locked in. Global Trends The US’ ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement is almost here. ‘Liberation Day’, as President Trump is calling it, takes place tomorrow with the US set to unveil the...

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01 Apr 2025

Markets Go Quiet Ahead of Tariff Decision

Trading activity is subsiding across financial markets this morning as participants prepare for today’s US job openings and Institute for Supply Management reports, and brace for tomorrow’s tariff decision. Equity markets are giving back some of yesterday’s late-session gains, ten-year Treasury yields continue to edge lower, and the greenback is trading flat against its major counterparts. Currencies look largely rangebound, but the euro is trading with a softer bias after bloc-wide inflation slowed last month, clearing the way for a rate cut at the European Central Bank’s April meeting. According to an update published by Eurostat this morning, consumer prices...

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