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USD

22 Oct 2025

Swings & roundabouts

• Push-pull. Pockets of vol. in some asset classes. US equities eased, bond yields consolidated & USD tread water. AUD & NZD held steady.• US CPI. US Gov. shutdown ongoing. But US CPI will be released Friday night. Diverging trends between ‘goods’ & ‘services’ prices. USD vol. likely.• AU macro. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. Q3 CPI due next week. Firmer inflation pressures may temper enthusiasm about RBA rate cuts. Global Trends There were pockets of volatility across some asset classes overnight on the back of some news headlines. But on net the moves were rather modest. Reports the Trump...

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22 Oct 2025

Momentum trades fade as nerves jangle across markets

With the US government shutdown dragging into a 22nd day, statistical agencies and the Federal Reserve under communications blackouts, and the precious metals complex melting down, the dollar is trading sideways against a basket of its peers this morning. Punters in prediction markets are betting that the government will remain closed until mid November, and the political tea leaves aren’t looking promising. In contrast with prior episodes, polls are showing that voters think both Republicans and Democrats share the blame for failing to find a funding solution, and the president’s approval ratings are holding firm, suggesting that the forces that...

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21 Oct 2025

Dollar climbs as risk appetite ebbs

Risk appetite is ebbing once again as traders pare exposures ahead of Friday’s US consumer-price release. The dollar is climbing against all of its major peers—putting it on course for a third consecutive daily advance—benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are drifting lower as an ongoing slide in oil prices dampens inflation expectations, and futures are pointing to a softer open for US equities. In currency markets, the euro and yen are enjoying a brief reprieve as political clouds clear. In Europe, Friday’s downgrade of France’s credit rating has barely widened bond spreads—evidence that institutional investors had largely anticipated the move and...

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20 Oct 2025

Risk sentiment turning the corner

• Market swings. A few bursts of volatility the past few weeks. Sentiment was positive overnight with the S&P500 rising & AUD clawing back lost ground.• US data. US Government Shutdown remains in place. But given its importance the delayed US CPI report will be released this week (Fri night AEDT).• RBA pricing. Uptick in AU unemployment has seen markets price in a greater chance of another RBA cut. Q3 CPI due next week. This may temper views. Global Trends There have been a few bursts of volatility over the past week or so stemming from a mix of renewed...

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20 Oct 2025

Stress eases, currency markets mean-revert

Financial markets are stabilising this morning as credit concerns and trade tensions begin to subside. After a brief period of whiplash on Friday, the dollar is inching higher against a basket of its most-traded rivals, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding just above the 4 percent threshold, and US equity futures are pointing to a stronger open. Most major pairs are back to Thursday levels. Measures of implied volatility are slipping from levels hit last week when losses relating to an auto parts supplier and a subprime auto lender emerged, followed shortly thereafter by writedowns at regional lenders including Zion’s...

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