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USD

12 Dec 2024

ECB Cuts, US Price Pressures Rise, Dollar Holds Steady

Currency markets are seeing a modest mean-reversion move this morning, with the dollar holding firm against most of its major rivals. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 4.28 percent mark on evidence of strengthening inflation pressures, equity futures are setting up for incremental losses at the open, and commodity prices are generally trading sideways as optimism surrounding China’s stimulus efforts fades. The franc is trading near a two-week low – but is still near a two-decade high against the euro – after the Swiss National Bank delivered a larger-than-expected half percentage point rate cut in this morning’s decision. With...

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11 Dec 2024

Jobs report in focus today

• Mixed signals. US CPI matched forecasts boosting expectations for a Fed cut next week. US equities rose but so did bond yields. USD firm.• Policy trends. BoC cut by 50bps. But flagged a more measured pace. ECB expected to cut again tonight. Shifting yield spreads remain USD supportive.• AUD impulses. AUD whipped around by newsflow. AU jobs data released today. Short-term AUD reaction to data likely to be binary. It was a busy night in terms of newsflow, however, outside of a jump up in US equities most other markets were well contained with the odd burst of volatility...

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11 Dec 2024

US Inflation Holds Steady, Leaving Fed Easing Bets Intact

Underlying consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, providing more evidence of a stalling disinflation process, while also giving the Federal Reserve room to continue easing policy at next week’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This matched the median consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed...

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10 Dec 2024

RBA rate cuts coming into view

• RBA rhetoric. Changes by the RBA to its guidance weighed on AUD. NZD has gone along for the ride. Odds of a February RBA cut have risen.• Data driven. Data will drive the RBA’s decision. Jobs report released tomorrow. Quarterly CPI out in late-January.• Global macro. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again tonight. US CPI also due. Sticky core inflation could give the USD more support. Offshore market moves were fairly constrained overnight as participants await the latest read on US inflation (due tonight at 12:30am AEDT). European and US equities dipped with the S&P500 (-0.3%) holding...

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10 Dec 2024

The bullish narrative behind the dollar remains powerful—and highly plausible

The consensus expects the dollar to outperform again in 2025, and there are good reasons to stick with the herd. The US economy is demonstrating remarkable resilience, defying expectations for a policy-induced slowdown. Household balance sheets remain solid, labour markets are tight, and real disposable income is climbing—bolstering consumer spending. A supportive fiscal stance, coupled with advances in artificial intelligence, is enhancing corporate profitability and spurring business investment. Household balance sheets look remarkably strong.Net foreign portfolio investment, 24-month rolling sums, trillions USDJanuary 1981 – September 2024 This strong growth backdrop, combined with structural factors including an aging population, persistently-wide deficits,...

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