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USD

14 Nov 2024

USD powering ahead

• Policy trends. The pricing in of the Trump agenda & comments by Fed Chair Powell have seen US rate cut expectations pared back.• USD upswing. The adjustment in yield spreads in the US’ favour is supporting the USD. We think this trend may have further to go.• Data pulse. The monthly China activity data is due today. Tonight, focus will be on US retail sales given consumption is the economic engine room. The post US-election market gyrations were on show again overnight as participants continue to contemplate what a Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps...

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14 Nov 2024

Dollar Stages Comeback On Political Risks and Inflation Jitters

And it’s back. The dollar is extending its post-election rally this morning, gaining against all of its major counterparts – excepting the safe-haven Swiss franc – as markets continue to adjust to a future in which US policymakers maintain expansionary fiscal policies, raise barriers to trade, and fold the security umbrella that has underpinned global growth since the Second World War. A series of nomination announcements in the last two days – including former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, NATO-sceptic Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence, and firebrand congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General – have...

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13 Nov 2024

US Inflation Stabilises, Markets Express Relief

Consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, avoiding a widely-feared surge, and giving the Federal Reserve room to ease policy settings in December. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.3 percent in October from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, while matching September’s pace. This was in line with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, suggesting that hurricanes Helene and Milton...

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13 Nov 2024

Currencies Trade Mixed Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are struggling against dangerous cross currents this morning as traders grapple with the impact Donald Trump’s policies might have on inflation, capital costs, and global trade. In a series of announcements published over the last two days, the president-elect appointed a number of loyalists to key positions, suggesting that he intends to follow through on campaign pledges that could raise prices, force the Federal Reserve to ease more slowly, and hammer trade-dependent economies outside the United States. Yields are pushing higher, equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, and the greenback is trading on a mixed...

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12 Nov 2024

Trump trade kicking into gear

• Trump trade. Post US election repricing continues. US yields rose. Widening yield spreads are pushing up the USD. AUD on the backfoot.• US data. Trump policy agenda is USD supportive. Data wise, US CPI due tonight. Sticky core inflation could add to the USD’s upswing.• Local news. Consumer sentiment improved. Business conditions holding up. Q3 wages due today. Monthly jobs report out tomorrow. The post US-election repricing in markets extended overnight with participants continuing to factor in what the Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps to curb US immigration will mean for the outlook. Reports...

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